Giroud's poor distribution should encourage Arsenal to sign another striker

This summer Arsenal have failed in their attempts to sign Gonzalo Higuain from Real Madrid and Luis Suarez from Liverpool. They're currently rumored to be interested in another Real Madrid striker, Karim Benzema. As it stands, Lukas Podolski's hamstring injury means that Arsenal's only options at center forward are Olivier Giroud, Theo Walcott and Yaya Sanogo. Injuries elsewhere in the squad mean Walcott's services are required on the right wing, his normal position. Sanogo is just 20 and was playing in the French second division last season. Early signs suggest he's far too raw to be much of a factor this season for Arsenal.

Arsenal's only real option up top at the moment then is Giroud. The French striker is having a solid start to the season. He's scored in both of Arsenal's first two league games and chipped in another in Champions League qualification. With Arsenal lacking depth in other areas of the pitch, some pundits and supporters have argued Arsene Wenger should focus on strengthening other areas of the pitch rather than signing another striker.

I believe Arsenal are most in need of an athletic, tough-tackling holding midfielder. However, to genuinely have a shot at contesting the league and Champions League a more well-rounded striker than Giroud will be required.

Although Giroud's finishing has steadily improved since a rocky start at Arsenal, he lacks quality distribution. Too often he gives the ball away. Last season he completed just 64% of his passes and had 3 assists. Arsenal's summer targets all offered better link up play last season. Suarez completed 76.6 % of his passes and had 5 assists, Higuain completed 74.8% of his passes and also had 5 assists. The distribution of current target Benzema offers a particularly striking comparison. Despite starting in five fewer games Giroud and making four fewer appearances, he had 11 assists. Benzema completed 79.2% of his passes and still scored as many goals as Giroud.

Arsenal are fluid throughout midfield with a number of players than can score goals. All three of their main attacking midfield players- Walcott, Cazorla and Podolski- managed double digit goals last season. If Arsenal managed to sign a striker that could contribute his share of goals but also add to the fluidity of the side with sharp passing, they'll be a better team.

Giroud's passing through two games has shown an improvement over last season. He has completed 72% of his passes. Still, 14 other Premier League players that have started games this season as either a loan striker or as part of a front two have a better pass completion percentage (Soldado- Tottenham, Van Wolfswinkel- Norwich, Van Persie- Manchester United, Dzeko- Manchester City, Aguero- Manchester City, sturridge- Liverpool, Berbatov- Fulham, Cisse- Newcastle, Michu- Swansea, Danny Graham- Hull, Sagbo- Hull, Jelavic- Everton, Chamakh- Crystal Palace, Anelka- West Brom). Benzema would bring at least as many goals in and provide the link up play and final ball to make Arsenal a more lethal team in the final third.

Podolski's absence could prove significant in North London Derby

Arsenal's 2-0 win over Fenerbahce last night in the final round of qualification for the Champions League group stage capped off a fine week for the Gunners that seemed to restore much-needed optimism around the club after the opening day league defeat to Villa had Gooners pressing the panic button. The win secured Arsenal's passage to their 16th consecutive season in the group stage of the Champions League, a staggering achievement for Arsene Wenger given the departure of some of the club's best players in recent years. It was a third win in seven days. Aaron Ramsey scored both goals in yet another man of the match performance. Santi Cazorla was fantastic playing off of Olivier Giroud through the middle and was unlucky not to get a goal of his own. Laurent Koscielny was given a rest after his nasty head injury in the first leg of the tie and yet Arsenal's makeshift back four still managed a clean sheet. With the North London Derby looming at the weekend, Arsenal established firm control of the contest early and never had to kick into a second gear, significant given their thin squad at the moment. On the whole this was as convincing and professional a performance as Wenger could have hoped.

Yet not all was perfect. Lucas Podolski was stretchered down the tunnel early in the second half with a hamstring injury that will sideline him for three weeks. While the German left sided attacker may become more of a fringe player as first team regulars return from injury and Arsenal bring in new signings, it was important Wenger have him available for the weekend derby.

The absence of Podolski means in all likelihood that Wenger's lineup picks itself. With both Podolski and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain sidelined with injuries, Cazorla is almost certain to play on the left of Arsenal's 4-2-3-1 with Thomas Rosicky in the #10 role and Ramsey and Wilshere occupying the two deeper midfield positions. While Wenger may well have gone with this set up even if Podolski were available, the injury does enable Spurs manager Andre Villas Boas a few days to prepare for Arsenal with a good idea of exactly how they'll set up. Wenger doesn't change his team's style much regardless of his opponent or the personnel available to him so this isn't necessarily a huge advantage. However, it does give Spurs players the benefit of studying where Arsenal has tended to exploit teams when fielding this lineup and how teams have beaten this lineup.

The injury could also hinder Arsenal in that it means Cazorla will be unable to play through the middle (unless Wenger makes a surprise move to use either Gibbs or Monreal as a left winger).
Cazorla is Arsenal's most gifted player on the ball. While he typically performs well when employed on the left, he doesn't get nearly as many touches as when he plays the #10 spot and therefore can't impact the game as much as he's capable. He played in the middle alongside Ramsey and Rosicky as part of a 4-3-3 in the win over Fulham where he made crucial passes in the buildup to the first two goals before assisting Podolski for the third. He completed more passes in the attacking third than any other player (25) and created more chances (6). He was excellent again last night as the center attacking midfielder in a 4-2-3-1. While Rosicky is a fine footballer, I don't think he gives Arsenal quite the same dynamism in the middle of the park.

Podolski would also have provided Arsenal a good counterattacking option to exploit space in behind Kyle Walker. Walker is a very attacking right back and will consistently overlap the right midfielder to provide width. This leaves space down the right side of Spurs defense for the opposition to break into quickly when they win the ball back. Podolski has the pace to track Walker's runs forward then sprint into the space in behind him and set off counters when Arsenal retain possession. In Arsenal's 2-0 win at Anfield last season, Podolski executed this kind of movement perfectly to score the Gunners' opener. Liverpool right back Glen Johnson had pushed into the attacking third to provide width before Steven Gerrard cheaply gave the ball away 25 yards from the Arsenal goal. With Johnson out of position, Podolski burst in behind him down the left flank. Arsenal played an outlet ball to Cazorla who took a few dribbles before sliding the unmarked Podolski through on goal for the finish. Unfortunately, I can't find a decent video to the full sequence that led to the goal but you can see Johnson chasing the play in the video below.

Although Cazorla is quick, he doesn't have the same speed over distance that Podolski has and therefore likely won't be able to exploit the spaces that open up on the channels when Walker gets forward.

Most importantly, Podolski's injury means Arsenal don't really have any viable substitutes to bring on in the midfield or up top. It will therefore be vital that Arsenal keep hold of the ball and force Tottenham to do a great deal of defensive work. With Wilshere, Ramsey, Rosicky and Cazorla all on the pitch they certainly have players with the passing ability to do so. Wenger won't want an end-to-end game because Spurs will have plenty of midfield substitutes than can come on and change the game if their first 11 tire. Having still failed to bring in any new signings, Arsenal don't have the same luxury.

Manchester United 0-0 Chelsea: Spoils shared in cagey affair; Rooney speculation put to bed?

Chelsea and Manchester United played out a cautious 0-0 draw in David Moyes' first league game at Old Trafford. Moyes' side had the better of the chances but with both teams reluctant to leave themselves exposed on the break, a draw seemed an inevitability.

In truth, the most intriguing part of the contest was probably the team sheets. With Wayne Rooney's future still uncertain, Moyes made a major statement by giving the England international the start against a Chelsea team he'd asked to be transferred to. Moyes appears to have every intention of keeping his wantaway forward and that Rooney looked United's brightest player will only add to the likelihood he stays at United.

Perhaps Jose Mourinho was trying to send a message of his own to Rooney with his team selection. The Chelsea manager opted to play without a true striker and instead employed Andre Schurrle furthest up the pitch with Eden Hazard, Oscar and Kevin De Bruyne as the three attacking midfielders. It seems unlikely the Chelsea boss would use such a big fixture as an opportunity to signal to Rooney that he'd be the first choice striker at Chelsea but with Mourinho you can't rule out the possibility.

In his post match interview he said the decision was a tactical one and that he had thought the mobility of playing four attacking midfielders would cause United more problems than playing with a point man up top. Whatever his reasoning, he appears resigned to Rooney staying put after telling reporters he can't see the forward leaving after the outpouring of support he got from United fans this evening.

I had written a post late last week suggesting the arrival of Willian could have serious implications for Juan Mata's playing time and there will be further speculation today about the Spaniard's future under Mourinho after he couldn't get a starting position in a starting lineup that featured four attacking midfielders. Mourinho did rubbish questions speculating on the future of Mata after the game, telling reporters he's suffering from a knock and wasn't going anywhere. However, he started against Aston Villa midweek and didn't appear to be suffering from any injury.

Quick thoughts on tactics

• Chelsea defended fairly deep and appeared to be looking to break quickly on the counter with their four pacey, energetic attacking midfielders De Bruyne, Hazard, Oscar and Schurrle. However, without a target striker they lacked a focal point in attack and an outlet forward when they won the ball back in midfield. They were also hurt by some untidy passing when they had chances to advance the ball forward quickly.
• United haven't changed much about their style under Moyes. They still play 4-4-1-1 and use plenty of width. Today, with Chelsea defending compact and narrow, United's best route into the final third was through the channels. Phil Jones and Patrice Evra overlapped Antonio Valencia and Danny Welbeck. The final ball was often lacking however and Moyes introduced Ashley Young to provide a better delivery in from wide areas. 
• Chelsea were well set up to deal with crosses sent in from the channels. Centerbacks John Terry and Gary Cahill are far more comfortable sitting deep and heading away balls whipped into the box than when opposition players are running in behind them. Chelsea were forced into making a few important blocks but overall they weren't really troubled.

Spurs win but 4-3-3 shape leaves Soldado isolated

For the second consecutive weekend Tottenham have emerged 1-0 winners thanks to a Roberto Soldado penalty. The penalty decision looked fortuitous- Andros Townsend appeared to dive rather than being clipped by Swansea's Jonjo Shelvey. However, Shelvey was fortunate not to have conceded a penalty earlier when he clipped Townsend near the edge of the penalty area. Replays showed Townsend was in the box when he'd been fouled but referee Neil Swarbrick gave a free kick just outside the area. Overall Spurs were much the better side and just about deserved the three points.

One concern for Andre Villas Boas however will be his side's inability to get the ball to their record signing Soldado. The Spanish striker received only 13 passes in the entire match, none of which were inside the box. His only shot attempt on the afternoon was the penalty he tucked home.

Soldado is excellent at holding onto the ball and bringing his midfielders into the game, however he is not the type of striker that is going to receive the ball 25 yards from goal, turn and run at center backs to create goals. Rather he's a lethal finisher in the box. Of his 24 goals last season for Valencia all were scored inside the penalty box. Seventeen were one touch goals and and five were penalties. In other words, 89% of his goals that were scored in the run of play were one touch goals in the box (you can see all his goals from last season in the video below). A potent penalty box striker obviously needs to be receiving the ball around the goal which is why the 0 passes received in the penalty area will be a concern for Villas Boas.

A big reason Soldado didn't get touches in the penalty area today is that Villas Boas played a 4-3-3 as opposed to the 4-2-3-1 he used in the opener at Crystal Palace when Soldado received 32 passes, 6 of which were in the box and had 4 shots. You can see a comparison of the passes Soldado received today's Swansea game versus last weekend's Crystal Palace game below.

The 4-2-3-1 meant Soldado had Gylfi Sigurdsson playing just off of him in the attacking midfield role. The presence of the central attacking midfielder in a 4-2-3-1 does two things for the striker- he provides a link between the deeper lying midfielders and the striker so that the striker isn't isolated alone up top and he also gives the central defenders an extra man to worry about so they can't simply double team the striker.

Spurs 4-2-3-1 shape versus Crystal Palace

A 4-3-3 formation lacks that center attacking midfielder and instead uses one holding midfielder that sits deep just in front of the back four and two box-to-box shuttlers in front of him on either side. Today, Capoue played the holding midfield role with Paulinho and Dembele as the shuttlers. There was no attacking midfielder in the hole playing just off Soldado so Swansea's center backs were able concentrate solely on Soldado without worrying about being dragged out of position by the runs of an attacking midfielder. Spurs midfield three was physically much stronger and more powerful than Swansea's so they bossed the game in the center of midfield. However the absence of a #10 meant they struggled to find someone to link play with Soldado further up the pitch and he cut an isolated figure up top. Instead they looked to get the ball wide to the right and advance forward with Townsed and the overlapping Kyle Walker. Townsend was by far Spurs most dangerous player but Villas Boas would almost certainly prefer more chances falling to his £26 million pound #9 than from Townsend cutting in from the right. 

Liverpool grind out 1-0 win at Villa Park

After dominating the early proceedings at Villa Park, Liverpool managed to hang on to a 1-0 win over Aston Villa despite finding themselves under heavy pressure from the home side throughout the second half. Villa out-shot Liverpool 17 to 5 in the match and 11 to 1 in the second half yet were denied an equalizer thanks to some resolute defending from Liverpool and fine goalkeeping from Simon Mignolet. The Belgian keeper twice produced world class saves to deny his countryman Christian Benteke his fourth goal of the young season. Although Liverpool produced little going forward after the break it was the type of game they'd have failed to take maximum points from last season so you'd expect Brendan Rodgers to be pleased with his side's ability to grind out a result.

Liverpool bossed possession and controlled the territory in the opening half hour. They pressed high up the pitch when they lost possession and forced Villa to launch hopeful balls towards Benteke. These long balls rarely fell to their intended target and when they did the striker was too isolated to do anything with them. After 30 minutes Liverpool had outpassed Villa 269 to 97 and 59 to 14 in the attacking third. You can see below Villa completed just 50% of their passes into the final third in the opening half hour. The bulk of the failed attempts were hopeful longballs forced by Liverpool's pressing.

However, for all their attractive possession, they failed to create many genuine scoring opportunities. A critique against Brendan Rodgers is that his teams offer plenty of attractive passing and attacking movement without finding that penetrating ball to open up defenses. In his final season at Swansea, Rodgers' team finished with the third highest average possession total in the league (behind Arsenal and Manchester City) yet only five teams scored fewer goals in the campaign. Daniel Sturridge produced a fantastic solo effort in the 21st minute but it ended up being Liverpool's only shot on target in the game. Rodgers will be desperate to convert that ball domination into more scoring opportunities. Luis Suarez has that ability to create opportunities on his own out of nothing and if he stays at Anfield he'll certainly help the cause after serving out his suspension.

After taking the lead Liverpool stopped pressing and began to defend deeper in banks of four. This allowed Villa more time on the ball in their own defensive half. They were able to knock some passes around which seemed to help them grow in confidence and they finally threatened the Liverpool goal late in the half with Benteke turning in the books and producing a curling effort to Mignolet's back post. The Belgian keeper did excellent to stretch to his left and parry the ball away for a corner.

There was a bit of a role reversal in the second half. Liverpool continued to sit deeper in banks of four and looked to soak up pressure. Villa became a bit more direct knocking long balls directly into Benteke and getting into the channels for crosses. After struggling to advance the ball into Liverpool's defensive half in the opening 45 minutes, Villa managed 50 passes in the final third to Liverpool's 28 in the second half. They took 11 shots to Liverpool's 1. However, Liverpool deserve credit for dealing with the pressure defensively. In Benteke, Agbonlahor, Weimann, and Delph Villa have genuine attacking quality. Both Chelsea and Arsenal were unable to keep them off the board at home. For Liverpool to do so at Villa Park is a fine achievement and says a lot about the Agger-Toure center back partnership thus far.

Despite struggling to get a foothold in the second half, Liverpool have proven they can win difficult games away from home. In Villa they've beaten a team that beat Arsenal at the Emirates and deserved a point against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. The win today means they have 6 points as of August 24. It took them until October 20 to get up over the 5 point total last season. That in itself is reason for cautious optimism at Liverpool.

Tactical Analysis: Arsenal pick apart disjointed Fulham defense

Arsenal ran out comfortable 3-1 winners over Fulham at Craven Cottage to secure the Gunners' first win of the season and further ease some of the pressure that had mounted after their opening day defeat to Aston Villa. First half goals from Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski put Arsenal firmly in control. Podolski added his second in the 68th to make it 3-0 and put the contest beyond doubt. Darren Bent got a consolation goal for the home side in his first appearance with the Cottagers.

With Laurent Koscielny suspended Bacary Sagna slid in to center back and Carl Jenkinson started at right back. Arsene Wenger opted to rest Jack Wilshere and went with a midfield three of Aaron Ramsey, Santi Cazorla and Tomas Rosicky. Ramsey sat in front of the center backs when Arsenal were in possession with Cazorla to his left and Rosicky to his right in more advanced positions. The formation was therefore more 4-3-3 than Arsenal's usual 4-2-3-1. Podolski played on the left of the front three with Walcott on the right.

Martin Jol made three changes to the side that beat Sunderland in the opening week. New signing Scott Parker replaced Derek Boateng in midfield. David Stockdale came in at goalkeeper in place of the injured Martin Stekelenburg and John Arne Riise was given the start at left back with Kieran Richardson also sidelined with an injury. Fulham's shape was their usual 4-4-1-1 with Patjim Kasami playing off Dimitar Berbatov up top.

The key for Arsenal in the first half was their domination in the center of the park. The 4-3-3 vs. 4-4-1 match up meant Arsenal had a man advantage in the middle of the park that led to Parker and Steve Sidwell simply being overrun in the middle. Fulham defended in two banks of four with Kasami and Berbatov higher up the pitch. Podolski tucked inside from the left giving Arsenal a further advantage in the middle. Both of Arsenal's first half goals came as a result of Parker and Sidwell having too much distance between the two of them and an overall lack of compactness in Fulham's defensive shape. This created loads of space for Arsenal's midfielders to move into.

The image below shows the buildup to Arsenal's opener. Sidwell pressures Cazorla in possession, Parker positions himself centrally just in front of the back four. Ramsey slides into the space to the left of Parker and in front of Riise, receives the pass in space and has plenty of time to turn and shoot before he's closed down. His shot is a weak one but falls to Giroud to tuck home. The issue here for Fulham is the amount of space Ramsey has to collect possession. Ideally in a 4-4-1-1 you'd want either Kasami or Berbatov working back to pressure Cazorla on the ball so that Sidwell can position himself side-by-side with Parker in front of the back four thereby preventing Arsenal's midfielders from easily collecting possession by sliding either side of Parker. There was a real disconnect defensively between Fulham's two center midfielders and two advanced attackers which forced Parker and Sidwell into chasing the ball in midfield while leaving at least one Arsenal midfielder unmarked.

Arsenal's second goal again came from poor defensive shape from Fulham. In the top image below you can see the large distances between Fulham players, leaving huge gaps for Arsenal to play in to. Parker is pressuring Cazorla on the left while Sidwell sits in the middle close to Rosicky. There is some 20 yards of space between the two. Fulham are neither pressing nor organizing into a compact shape at midfield which leaves Arsenal with time on the ball and the space in advanced positions to pick out forward passes. Here, Podolski simply tucks inside from the left and Mertesacker is easily able to play a pass into his feet. With the simplest of balls Arsenal have bisected the Fulham midfield. Podolski receives the pass, Sidwell slides over to close him down and that leaves Cazorla completely unmarked to burst forward through the middle. He's able to slide a ball through to Walcott whose shot can only be pushed by Stockdale into the feet of Podolski to slam home. It's Mertesacker's simple pass into Podolski that has Fulham completely out of position and scrambling to get pressure on the ball. If Fulham are going to press here they need the back four much higher up the pitch. If they aren't going to commit to the press everyone needs to drop off and Parker and Sidwell need to much closer together in the center of midfield.

Fulham neither pressing nor dropping in and getting compact. Too much space between Parker and Sidwell

Podolski easily able to tuck in and collect possession from Mertesacker. Fulham midfield bisected with one simple pass.

Arsenal's second half was professional. Whereas in the first half they defended with banks of four and looked to boss possession, in the second half they defended with a midfield bank of five, conceded some territory to Fulham and looked to hit them on the break. With Arsenal dropping deeper, Fulham had more of the ball in advanced areas than they did in the first half- they completed just 29 passes in the attacking third in the first half compared to 56 in the second half- but Arsenal's compact midfield five meant they were unable to find any decisive penetrating passes to trouble the defense. The Gunners ultimately did hit the home side on the break in the 68th to seal the win.

Overall Arsenal will be pleased with their performance. They dominated meaningful possession in the first half and were able to overrun Fulham in the middle of midfield. Comfortably in control by the end of the first half, they wisely didn't stretch themselves going forward in the second. Given their lack of true holding midfielder in the side, it would have been an unnecessary risk to continue pressing forward as they did in the first half and leave themselves exposed at the back.

Fulham made the game far too easy for Arsenal. They owe much of the loss to some abject defensive shape. They were far too disjointed and Jol will need to make sure Parker and Sidwell stay more compact in future fixtures.

Pending Willian purchase could be ominous sign for Mata

Chelsea have agreed to a £30 million deal for Willian pending a work permit hearing. The Brazilian ads to a roster already filled with a wealth of attacking midfield options. The Brazilian played on the left side of a 4-2-3-1 formation at Shakhtar Donetsk, who advanced from the group stages of last season's Champions League at Chelsea's expense, before moving in January to Anzhi Makhachkala. If the deal goes through he joins Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Juan Mata, Andre Schurrle, Oscar and Victor Moses in competing for the three attacking midfield spots Mourinho will generally play in either a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation.

So what would Willian's arrival mean for the attacking midfielders already on the books at Chelsea? In a preseason press conference Mourinho stated how important it was for him to have depth in the attacking midfield spots.

"We will have Schurrle, De Bruyne, Mata, Oscar, Hazard and Moses for these three positions and so we have more options than Chelsea had in the last year. These are crucial positions for me. I like these players to play with high intensity so to have five players for three positions is, I think brilliant for me."

He actually named six players, Willian will be the seventh. With Chelsea once again competing on several fronts this season and Mourinho's desire for depth in those positions, there will be plenty of squad rotation so most of those seven will likely play significant minutes.

If there is an odd man out it is almost certainly Victor Moses. He's the only one of the seven that can't also play centrally in behind the striker. Although he's the only true out and out winger of the bunch, Hazard and Schurrle both have the pace to beat opponents 1 v 1 in the channels and get balls into the box if Chelsea need to play with more width and they're also more dynamic coming inside. Mourinho prefers his wide attackers to have the versatility to come inside and combine short passes with the central attacker and forward. Oscar, Schrurrle, Hazard, Mata, De Bruyne and Willian are all more suited to pinching inside from the wings than Moses. I'd be surprised if the Nigerian wasn't sold or loaned out before the end of the transfer window.

Based on the first two games of the season, it appears Mourinho prefers Oscar in the central role, although Chelsea are very fluid and at different times against Aston Villa Hazard played off the forward in the middle. Interestingly, Mata was the third attacking midfield starter that game and spent all his time on the left or right flank. Mata has been Chelsea's best player by some distance the last two seasons playing in the #10 role. For all Mourinho's assurances Mata is part of his plans, it does not appear those plans include playing Mata in his favored position just off the striker. The diminutive Spaniard looked out of sorts in his wide role against Villa and as a big fan of his, I fear he is not suited for Mourinho's style and won't have near the impact he did the previous two seasons. He was subbed off for Schurrle in the 65th minute and my suspicion is that Mourinho prefers De Bruyne and Schurrle to partner with Oscar and Hazard over Mata.

It'll be also be interesting to see how the move impacts Hazard given both his and Willian's main position is on the left side of a front 3. I'd expect Hazard and Oscar to finish the season with the most appearances of the seven but it's difficult to predict where exactly everyone will play. Regardless, Mourinho has an enviable array of attacking midfielders and his most difficult task may be keeping them all happy.

Positives from defeat: Villa's compact defense and high line frustrated Chelsea

Despite losing 2-1 to Chelsea, Paul Lambert will take pride in another excellent Aston Villa performance this evening in a contest his side deserved a point from. Three crucial decisions from referee Kevin Friend went against Villa. With the score at 1-1, Branislav Ivanovic could have been sent off for an arm into the head of Christian Benteke. Moments later a powerful Ivanovic header from a Lampard free kick stood despite replays showing the Serbian defender was a fraction offside. In stoppage time a Villa header struck John Terry's hand which was in an unnatural position above his head.

Still, as gutted as Lambert will be about the unlucky defeat, he'll be able to draw on another overwhelmingly positive performance away to a top four side. He should be particularly pleased with his team's performance on the defensive side of the ball. Last season Villa finished with the third worst defensive record behind relegated clubs Wigan and Reading. They were famously beaten 8-0 in this fixture last season during a week that also saw them lose 4-0 to Spurs and 3-0 to Wigan. Although they've conceded in both of their first two games this campaign, the defense looks far less porous and allows them a platform on which to spring their explosive counterattacks.

Villa's solid defensive performance owed to their excellent team shape. They lined up in the same 4-3-3 formation used in the win over Arsenal. Defensively, it turned into a 4-1-4-1. Gabriel Agbonlahor, Fabian Delph, Karim El Ahmady and Andy Weimann formed a midfield bank of four with Ashley Westwood sitting in the middle of the park just in behind Delph and El Ahmady to form a central midfield triangle. That triangle moved as a unit and stayed very compact, taking away forward passing lanes for Chelsea. When the ball was played to Ramires on the right side of Chelsea's center midfield, Delph would apply token pressure and El Ahmady would drop in closer to Westwood on the weak side. When it was reversed to Lampard on the left, El Ahmady would step to ball and Delph would drop in on the weak side. This defensive movement did two very positive things for Villa. First, the token ball pressure meant Lampard and Ramires could freely play the ball horizontally to one another but didn't have the option to pick out a forward pass with a defender stepping directly to them. Secondly, Westwood, Delph and El Ahmady staying so compact ensured Villa had enough bodies in the middle of the park to block off passing lanes to Oscar sitting in the middle behind the striker and Mata and Hazard cutting inside. Chelsea play with three extremely fluid attacking midfielders that all like to drift inside and overload the middle of the park so the presence of three compact center midfielders made space difficult for the likes of Hazard, Mata and Oscar to find.

The screenshot below shows a good example of Villa's movement. Ramires is in possession for Chelsea. Delph applies token pressure to Ramires, simultaneously taking away the passing lane to Hazard. El Ahmady is in position to cut out any pass aimed at Mata cutting in from the left. Westwood is denying any pass forward into Oscar. Ramires ends up on the ball for a full 6 seconds looking for a forward passing option. One never opens up and he's forced to play a square pass to Lampard.

Hull City also played a 4-3-3 in their 2-0 defeat to Chelsea Saturday but it took a very different shape defensively and led to Steve Bruce's side being completely overrun. Unlike Lambert, Bruce had his two box-to-box midfielders Robbie Brady and Robert Koren both press Ramires and Lampard high up the field, leaving much more space between those two and the holding midfielder David Meyler. With Hazard tucking in from the left, Kevin de Bruyne tucking inside from the right and Oscar all occupying central areas high up the pitch, Meyler was overwhelmed and Chelsea controlled possession high up the pitch in dangerous areas. In the first half against Hull, Chelsea completed 81 passes in the attacking third. In the first half tonight against Villa they manged just 46.

Along with sharp defensive movement from the midfield, Villa also kept space very compact by holding a high defensive line and pressing relentlessly when Chelsea advanced the ball past the midfield line. As a result, Mourinho's side had very little space between the seams to operate and were therefore left to try to hit long balls over the top to Demba Ba. This evening Chelsea played 64 long balls and were caught offside 5 times compared to just 46 long balls against Hull and one offsides.

In Weimann, Agbonlahor and Benteke Villa have three explosive attackers capable of getting at opposition defenders on the break. Agbonlahor and Benteke combined for the first goal. Benteke and Weimann would have combined for two others were it not for some brilliant goalkeeping from Petr Cech. If Lambert's side can continue to keep things tight defensively, Villa will be a very difficult team to beat.

Tactical Analysis: Manchester City 4-0 Newcastle

Manchester City scored twice in each half to run out comfortable 4-0 winners over Newcastle in an impressive performance at the Etihad. David Silva and Sergio Aguero each found the net before Newcastle’s Steven Taylor was sent off just before halftime for a forearm swing into the back of Aguero. Yaya Toure added a sublime freekick early in the second half and substitute Samir Nasri closed out the scoring in the 75^th.

There were three major tactical features of the game: David Silva’s ability to create overloads and find gaps coming inside from the left, the refreshing width provided by Jesus Navas on the right flank, and the partnership and clever movement of Aguero and Edin Dzeko.

Lineups:

Manuel Pelligrini set his side out in a similar 4-2-2-2 formation to the one typically used by Roberto Mancini, the man he replaced. Clichy, Lescott, Kompany and Zabaleta made up the back four. Toure and new signing Fernandinho made up the center midfield, occupying the space in front of the back four. David Silva frequently tucked inside from a starting position on the left, as he did under Mancini, while Jesus Navas stayed wide on the right to provide width. Aguero and Dzeko were given starts up top over newcomers Stevan Jovetic and Alvaro Negredo.

Newcastle did not include French midfielder Johan Cabaye in the squad after Arsenal had a £10 million bid rejected for him earlier in the day. They lined up in something of a hybrid 4-3-3/4-4-2. The midfield three was made up of Jonas Gutierrez, Cheick Tiote and Moussa Sissoko. Hatem Ben Arfa started on the right of a front three. Yoan Gouffran was on the left with Papiss Cisse as the main striker. In possession Ben Arfa would frequently drop deep on the right flank while Gutierrez would drift wider to the left. Gouffran would tuck inside close to Cisse making the shape more of a 4-4-2. Defensively they formed two banks of four with Ben Arfa dropping in alongside the midfield three and Cisse and Gouffran staying higher up the pitch. 

Click for larger image

David Silva’s Movement:

David Silva’s movement is always a handful for opposing defenses. He’s tremendous at reading the runs of his fellow attackers, finding space between the seams and creating overloads for opposition defenders. For instance, when Aguero drops into midfield and is picked up by the opposition holding midfielder, Silva will drift infield alongside Aguero to create a 1 v. 2 situation for the holding midfielder to defend (Figure 1). When Aguero drifts wide and is picked up by the opposing left back, Silva will tuck just inside and create 1 v. 2 situations for the left back (figure 2). 

Figure 1

Figure 2

He’ll also drift into the space between the opposition right-sided center midfielder and right midfielder/forward, where he can collect passes from the two deeper lying midfielders and have the space to run at the defense. He was incredibly dangerous in this space last night, collecting possession from Fernandinho in the gap between Sissoko and Ben Arfa. City’s opener came from this type of movement. The image below shows Silva tucking inside of Ben Arfa where he’s able to receive a pass from Fernandinho and has the space to turn and dribble at the defense. He releases a pass to Dzeko on the left side of the box whose deflected pass across the face of goal falls for Silva to head home.  Identical movement from Silva in the 29^th allowed him to release Dzeko through on goal again but the Bosnian striker was unable to finish. 

Navas provides width:

For much of last season Maninci employed Samir Nasri on the right. Like Silva, Nasri enjoys tucking infield from wide areas. When the two played together City could often therefore become a bit narrow. In Jesus Navas, Pelligrini has a true right-sided winger capable of providing width and stretching the defense laterally. This gives City a bit more balance going forward- they can through the middle with Silva tucking inside or down the wing with Navas hugging the touchline. The graphics below compare where Silva and Navas received passes yesterday. Nearly every pass Navas received was down the right channel whereas Silva moved freely around the pitch to create overloads. Navas had a shaky start but was excellent in the second half, combining well with Zabaleta and whipping in some dangerous crosses.

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Movement of Aguero and Dzeko:

The final major defining feature of this game was the partnership between Aguero and Dzeko. When playing with two forwards it is obviously important both understand the off-ball movement of one another. One of the major strengths of a two forward system is that against a team playing four at the back, both opposition center backs have to pick up a forward so neither is left free to provide cover.

One way teams using two forwards like to take advantage of the lack of a spare center back for the opposition is to put both forwards on the shoulder of each of the center backs. One forward then checks into midfield, drawing one of the center backs with him. The other forward will then make a diagonal run into the space that becomes available. The figure below shows an example. Here, Dzeko checks into midfield for the ball, forcing Coloccini to step out of line with the rest of the back four to close him down. This opens up space in behind for Aguero to make a diagonal run into. 

In fact, the example illustrates the forward movement City used to score their second goal. Dzeko checked into midfield for a pass from Kompany, forcing Coloccini to follow him. Rather than step forward to force Aguero into an offside position, Taylor follows his diagonal run in behind but doesn’t have the pace to keep. Dzeko provides a clever flick and Aguero is one on one with Krul to tuck it home. Below you can see a screenshot of the buildup. Coloccini steps out to Dzeko just as Aguero begins his diagonal run in behind.

Although Dzeko was guilty several times of wasting his own goal scoring chances, his movement with Aguero was clever and he deserves credit for setting up the first two goals and generally stretching Taylor and Coloccini around the field in the first half. 

Conclusion:

Pellegrini will be pleased with what was a dominant performance in all facets. I didn't discuss it in any detail above but Fernandinho and Toure formed a powerful and formidable midfield pairing capable of both breaking up attacks from the opposition and springing into the attacking third to offer extra options. Fernandinho completed the second most passes in the attacking third of any player behind Silva. 

Tacticially it wasn't an especially different look from Pellegrini although the inclusion of Navas added width City frequently lacked last season. 

It's difficult to judge Alan Pardew's side after such a difficult opening fixture in which they played half of it with ten men. They have plenty of power in midfield but were desperately missing the technical ability of Cabaye and could struggle to break teams down if he ends up departing for Arsenal. Ben Arfa looked to be the only player capable of providing any creativity in a lineup full of strength and power. 

Are Wenger's tactics to blame for poor Arsenal showing against top 5 opposition?

The two tables below show how last season’s top five Premier League teams fared against one another and how they fared against the other 15 teams.

Despite amassing fewer points against top five opposition than Manchester City or Chelsea, Manchester United cruised to the title 11 points clear of their nearest competitor thanks to consistent form against the bottom 15 teams. Likewise, Arsenal managed just one win over top five opposition, amassing 6 points fewer than Spurs, yet were able edge their North London rivals to the final Champions League spot because of their ability to beat teams they were expected to beat. In fact, only United had a better record against teams outside the top 5.

Arsenal’s failure to collect points against top sides is interesting. A critique of Arsene Wenger is that he plays the same style against every opponent and doesn’t alter tactics based on the opposition (this isn’t entirely fair but Wenger pays far less attention to tactics than Rafa Benitez at Chelsea, AVB at Spurs, Sir Alex at Man United and Roberto Mancini at City did). Arsenal’s strong record against weaker opponents and poor record against top five opponents suggests they’re able to win games when they have superior talent but struggle when the opposition is equally gifted or better. Tactics employed are often the difference when top sides with similar levels of talent match up with one another so Wenger’s less than fastidious approach to preparing for the unique strengths of each individual opponent could be costing Arsenal valuable points. Wenger is undoubtedly a great man manager and one of the best developers of players the game has known but it would be interesting to see how Arsenal would fare for a season with a more astute tactician in charge (Wenger’s transfer dealings are a subject for another blog post).  

Premier League predictions: Chelsea champions; Spurs to pip Arsenal for 4th

Predicting the top five finishers in the 2013-2014 edition of the Barclay's Premier League...

1.     Chelsea

Like both Manchester clubs, Chelsea will enter the 2013-2014 Premier League season with a new manager. Unlike at United and City, the new manager is also the old manager and is immensely popular at the club. Mourinho’s incredible achievements in his first spell as Chelsea boss mean he’ll be looked at with less skepticism from the supporters and media than either David Moyes or Manuel Pelligrini and should therefore allow the squad to go about their business with minimal distraction. For the first time since the sacking of Carlo Ancelotti, there’s been a sense of calm confidence surrounding the club in the buildup to the campaign. While I believe Manchester City’s summer transfers have given them the most talented squad, I expect it to take them some time to get used to playing with one another and to adjust to Pellegrini. Likewise there will be a learning curve for Pellegrini in his first season in England. Chelsea’s first 11 will look similar to last season so they should already have a decent chemistry that should translate to a fast start. New signings Marco van Ginkel and Andre Schurrle, along with Kevin De Bruyne, Michael Essien and Romelu Lukaku returning from loan will make Chelsea a deeper side and provide Mourinho the squad rotation options to navigate a busy fixture list. If Chelsea fail to pry Wayne Rooney away from Moyes at United, the striker position could still be a question mark. Lukaku was fantastic in his loan spell at West Brom last season but I’m still not certain he’s ready to be the main option up front for an entire season while Demba Ba and Fernando Torres failed to impress in 2012-2013.

2.     Manchester City

New signings Fernandinho, Jesus Navas, Alvaro Negredo and Stevan Jovetic will give City a new look this season as all four are expected to receive significant minutes. Jovetic and Negredo have been brought in to provide goals for a City team that managed just 66 last season, tied with Tottenham for fewest among top 6 teams and 20 less than their Manchester rivals. Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko will provide competition for what will likely be two forward starting spots. Finding the best partnership will be an important early task for Pellegrini. For me Fernandinho and Navas are the more important of the two signings. Navas represents a significant improvement over James Milner and the inconsistent Samir Nasri down the right hand side. Fernandinho impressed with Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League season and is an improvement on Gareth Barry. Like Toure he is mobile and enjoys breaking through the midfield with the dribble. One concern though is that a Toure-Fernandinho pairing could become too fluid if both advance forward and fail to protect the back four from counters. City’s league position will likely depend on how quick of a start they get off to. If they stumble early as they adjust to new players and a new manager the gap may well become too big for them to bridge in the second half of the season. If they get off to a flying start they certainly have the talent and depth to win the title.

3.     Manchester United

Managing the weight of expectations that comes from replacing arguably football’s greatest ever manager after 26 successful years is not an enviable task, even if it means the opportunity to coach a club with the history, support and resources of Manchester United. How quickly Moyes manages that pressure and convinces supporters he’s up to the task will go a long way in determining the near future for United. So far he’s had a difficult time navigating the transfer market as United have failed to land targets Thiago Alcantara and Cesc Fabregas from Barcelona and Marouane Fellaini and Leighton Baines from Moyes old side Everton. It is the failure to land Alcantara and Fabregas that will hurt United the most. Although I rate Shinji Kagawa highly and Michael Carrick is consistently solid, I don’t think Anderson or Tom Cleverley are good enough and feel United have a weaker midfield than Chelsea and City. Moyes inexperience chasing trophies and lack of squad depth relative to their closest competitors mean United finish outside the top two for the first time since 2004-2005.

4.     Tottenham

For a couple of years now folks have been predicting Spurs will pip Arsenal yet it hasn’t happened. But with Spurs making some excellent summer signings in midfielders Paulinho and Ettiene Capoue, winger Nacer Chadli and forward Roberto Soldado, and Arsenal failing to secure a major signing, Spurs are in a better position to make that happen than last year even if Gareth Bale makes a big money move to Real Madrid. Between Paulinho, Chapoue, Moussa Dembmele, Sandro, Lewis Holtby, Tom Huddlestone and Scott Parker, Tottenham have tremendous depth in the middle of the park and Soldado will provide more ruthless finishing in the box than Jermaine Defoe or Emanuel Adebayor managed last season. They could lack depth at the back however. With the excellent Jan Vertonghen set to miss Spurs opening fixture at Crystal Palace, Younes Kaboul will likely get his first start in almost a year. A lengthy injury to Michael Dawson or Vertonghen could see Spurs Champions League aspirations thrown off course.

5.     Arsenal

Having gotten some 60-70 players off their books this closed season and signed just one, Arsenal’s squad is looking a little thin to start the season. Injuries to Abou Diaby, Tomas Vermaelen and Nacho Monreal have compounded that problem while it also looks like Mikel Arteta is set to miss the opener Saturday to Villa with an injury. Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud struggled to have a big impact in their first season at the Emirates.* While only Manchester United and Chelsea scored more goals than Arsenal last season, the Gunners scored fewer goals against top five opposition than City, United, Chelsea and Spurs. More importantly, their results were poor against top five opposition where they managed just 5 points in eight matches. By contrast, Spurs finished with 11, United with 12, and Chelsea and City both with 14. Having only added 20 year-old Yaya Sanogo this closed season- a player unlikely to feature much anytime soon- it’s difficult to see how Arsenal will avoid a further dip this time around.

 

Thoughts on Gary Neville's suggested foreign player quota in Premier League

In recent seasons much has been made of the influx of foreign players into the Premier League. Last season foreign players made up 62% of Premier League squads. The top five teams from 2012-2013 have so far brought in 13 new players during the summer transfer window- none have been from a Home Nations country. Those five teams have sold or loaned 16 British players. Of those 16 only Steven Caulker moved to another Premier League side.

As sides continue to spend money on non-British players, opportunities for young British footballers to ply their trade at the top of the domestic league have diminished and there is a growing sentiment that, as a result, British national teams are falling behind their continental counterparts. This summer England's under 21 and under 20 sides were eliminated in the group stages of the U-21 European Championship and U-20 World Cup respectively without having won a game in either competition.

Early this week Gary Neville suggested a quota system on foreign players needs to be introduced in the Premier League. The former Manchester United and England right back said,

"When I came through in the mid-1990s there was a rule where only a limited number of foreign players could be included in a team during European competition. We benefited from that because, as young British players, we got opportunities. We need to get back something of that ilk - where each team has three or four players from the home countries at the start of every match. My chances of making it as a pro footballer at the age of 18 in 2013 would be a lot less than 20 years ago. A talented 18-year-old today has to hope he's at the right club with the right manager who believes in young players. But it's become so short-term."

Neville's comment on the short-termism of modern English football was an especially astute one. With the financial pressures at stake of avoiding relegation and qualifying for European competition, there are incentives for club owners to invest in foreign talent that can come in and immediately have an impact on a club's league position. Likewise, there are incentives for managers to play foreign players with more experience than domestic ones. In today's Premier League, a manager's job security depends on how they perform in the short term. Developing young British players takes time- a luxury Premier League managers are rarely given. If an established foreign midfielder gives a side a better shot at avoiding relegation than a young British one, of course a manager is going to field the foreign player. Both owners and managers are simply responding to the incentives in front of them and it is young British players who are losing out. If rules aren't put in place guaranteeing playing time for British players, owners and managers aren't going to voluntarily change their behavior.

Neville's suggested quota system of 3 to 4 players from home countries starting every match is one way to ensure the involvement of British players in the Premier League. I think 3 to 4 players is a decent number to ensure more young British players are coming up through the ranks and getting their shot. If the quota was upped to 5 or 6 British players to start every match, I think you run the risk of significantly watering down the competition. World class foreigners raise the level of the competition and force British players to improve in order to compete. Playing in the Premier League won't do young players any good if the quality of the competition is significantly diminished by the departure of world class foreign players. 

The chart below shows the number of Premier League minutes played by English players under the age of 25 for each team in the 2012-2013 season (I did not include Northern Irish, Scottish or Welsh players in the chart). Unsurprisingly, Paul Lambert's youthful Aston Villa side led the league with 12,091 minutes played by English players 24 years or younger. Arsene Wenger gave more minutes to English players under 25 than any other top five manager- unsurprising given his long and relatively secure tenure at Arsenal has provided him the time to develop young players.

What are your thoughts? Should the Premier League establish a quota system on the number of foreign players? Would it help the development of young English players and improve the English national team?

On Arsenal fans' support for Arsène Wenger

Wenger's "art" was never likely to be questioned when Arsenal were winning the league, but probably his greatest achievement is that he managed to sustain support amongst the vast majority of Arsenal fans when things were going poorly, partly because of the style of play. To justify poor results because of the way the poor results were achieved is, in simple terms, extraordinarily cheeky. It is roughly equivalent to a used car salesman maintaining the full support of his boss, despite never selling any cars, because he turned up for work every day dressed immaculately. 

-Michael Cox in So Paddy Got Up: An Arsenal Anthology

Kyle posted this quote on Facebook, and it prompted me to break my long hiatus from blogging. Michael Cox is a very smart writer, but he grossly oversimplifies the situation at Arsenal and his used-car-salesman analogy isn't particularly apt in this context. I don’t mean to sound too harsh, as I do not totally reject his thesis: I think Wenger has fared relatively well in terms of maintaining the support of the fans, despite a long spell of somewhat disappointing results. That said, Cox overstates Arsenal’s failings as well as the fans’ unwavering support for Wenger. He also ignores other important factors that have contributed to fans’ support for Wenger besides the club's style of play.

1. Things have never gone that poorly for Arsenal under Wenger. While Arsenal certainly are in the midst of a lengthy period without trophies, they have always finished in the top four under Wenger. Wenger has received a lot of criticism for claiming that finishing in the top four is like winning a trophy, but most Liverpool and Tottenham fans would surely trade Champions League qualification every year for their recent League Cup trophies. Qualifying for the Champions League brings tangible benefits to a club in terms of revenue and attracting/keeping top players.
2. When Arsenal moved from Highbury to the Emirates, Wenger made the case to fans that the club would need to be prudent financially for several years while the club serviced the huge amount of debt incurred to build the new stadium. Wenger’s plan was to develop a core group of young players into a squad that would contend for trophies rather than purchase expensive already-developed players. Fans trusted that Wenger's plan was in the long-term interest of the club given his early success at Arsenal. As his plan unraveled with the exits of the top core players that Wenger helped to develop (i.e.,  Fabregas, Nasri, van Persie), Arsenal fans increasingly expressed their dissent. Wenger has, in fact, faced plenty of criticism, especially over the past 2-3 seasons. A very vocal and relatively large contingent of Arsenal supporters has at various times called for the club to sack him.
3. Many Arsenal fans have assigned blame (correctly or incorrectly) to the board rather than Wenger. These fans think that the board do not provide Wenger with sufficient resources to compete for trophies, and, given the financial constraints imposed by the board, Wenger has performed quite well.
4. The used-car-salesman metaphor doesn’t make much sense. In the metaphor, the fans are apparently the boss of the salesman, but Arsenal fans aren’t Wenger’s boss and couldn’t fire him even if they wanted to. Moreover, the business of selling cars is not much like the business of a spectator sport. The sartorial proficiency of a salesperson is not of primary importance to the boss, while fans (for good reason) care about being entertained. Equating Wenger’s relatively successful Arsenal in recent years (though not successful in terms of trophies) and their pleasing style of play to a well-dressed car salesman who never makes a sale seems entirely unfair.